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Validate Channel Incrementality Before Scaling

Design geographically controlled incrementality tests to isolate and measure sales derived from a new channel launch, separating them from sales that would have occurred anyway, before scaling the investment.

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Core Lift Helps You Validate Before Scaling

Media Incrementality Can Be Proven

Core Lift quantifies the true incrementality of a new channel or promotion through rigorous, geographically controlled lift experiments. It measures how much an investment truly adds beyond the baseline.

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The Problem We Solve

Measure Causality, Not Correlation.

When a CMO evaluates adding a new channel to the mix—from linear TV to OOH, or a never-before-used digital platform—they must answer a precise question: how many additional sales will this investment truly generate?

Traditional metrics like reported ROAS, last-click attribution, and multi-touch models don’t answer this question because they detect correlation with purchase, not a causal relationship. Core Lift, instead, isolates the incremental lift produced by a new channel or promotion.

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How It Works

Execution is where a well-designed test stands apart from a poorly designed one.

Core Lift selects comparable geographic areas and divides them into two groups: in test areas, the campaign is activated, while in control areas, it is not. The difference in sales performance between the two groups, net of confounding variables, measures the incremental effect of the campaign: the sales that would not have occurred in its absence.

It works on any channel because it operates on aggregated units (provinces, TV DMAs, ZIP codes) and does not require individual tracking: no cookies, no consent, no walled garden issues.

The quality of the result depends primarily on the test design: area selection, duration, preliminary statistical power calculation, and contamination management. It is in these phases that a robust test distinguishes itself from a weak one, and this is where we leverage over 15 years of experience.

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When Core Lift, When Core MMM

The two solutions answer different questions

Core Lift

Question
“Does this single channel truly work?”

Output
Precise causal effect, with credibility interval

Project Duration
4 – 12 weeks

Investment
Entry-level, single deal

When It Makes Sense
Validate a new channel, a promotion, a creative test

Core MMM

Question
“What is the optimal mix of all my channels?”

Output
Optimized mix, ROI per channel, forecast scenarios

Project Duration
Annual, recurring

Investment
From €2M media budget and up

When It Makes Sense
Integrated and recurring mix overview

When to Use Core Lift

Validate a New Channel Before Scaling It

If a brand is considering entering CTV or a new digital platform, Core Lift measures its incremental impact with a controlled experiment. The result indicates if and how to extend the investment.

Demonstrate the Value of an Already Active Channel

When an investment is confirmed by habit, without solid evidence of its effectiveness, Core Lift provides a causal measure before the next budget allocation.

Quantify the Incrementality of a Promotion

Core Lift distinguishes sales genuinely generated by the promotion from those that would have occurred anyway, also highlighting any cannibalization effects.

Negotiate with Media Vendors and Partners Based on Real Data

Documented causal effect offers the CMO a more solid basis for evaluating investment and approaching negotiations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What conditions and data are needed to conduct a Core Lift test?

The test requires comparable test and control areas, the ability to geographically modulate the campaign, and a continuously observable KPI. Historical series of the KPI by area and period, data on media pressure or promotion, and the main variables that can influence the result are also needed. During the test design phase, we verify granularity, historical variability, and the risk of contamination between areas.

What activities can Core Lift be used for?

Core Lift can be used to validate the launch of new media channels, such as TikTok, Connected TV, or OOH, and to measure the specific impact of a local promotion or BTL activity.

How long does the Core Lift experiment last?

The experiment involves three phases: design, exposure, and analysis. The exposure and observation phase typically lasts at least 3–4 weeks, depending on the channel, KPI, and required statistical power. After the test concludes, it takes 7–10 business days to analyze the data and present the results.

How are areas chosen and the impact of the new channel isolated?

We apply a geo-lift methodology: we select test and control areas with comparable historical trends and consistent characteristics relative to the main business drivers. The channel is activated only in the test areas; the difference compared to the control areas, net of confounding variables, allows us to estimate its incremental impact.

How are the results interpreted, and what is Core Lift's relationship with Marketing Mix Modeling?

Core Lift measures the incremental lift on the KPI and indicates whether to maintain, extend, or revise the investment. It does not replace Marketing Mix Modeling: it evaluates the causal effect of a specific channel or promotion, while MMM measures the contribution of the entire mix over time.

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Have a Channel to Validate?

In a 30-minute test design session, we’ll define the setup, areas, duration, and statistical power of the test together.

By the end, you’ll have an operational plan and clear timelines to validate the channel before extending the investment.

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